Module 10: Introduction to Quantitative Analysis I

Overview

In this module, we will begin to consider the basic questions that quantitative data analysis seeks to answer, with a focus on statistics that describe data (descriptive statistics) and statistics that look for differences between groups (inferential statistics). We will discuss the idea of statistical significance – and the limitations of this idea. While the assigned chapters provide detailed description of how to calculate and interpret these statistics, for this class we will keep things at a higher level, focusing on the larger ideas and what you should look for as you read political science research. What this means is that you don’t have to know how to calculate the statistics yourself (although I do encourage you to do the textbook exercises if you are interested in doing so!).

As always, to help you better understand and engage with the ideas that we are covering in the modules ahead, I strongly encourage you to discuss the course material in the class discussion boards.

Objectives

When you have finished this module, you should be able to do the following:

  1. Explain how political scientists use statistics to link quantitative data to arguments in political science;
  2. Identify which measures of central tendency to use with different levels of measurement;
  3. Ask appropriate questions when presented with descriptive data, including differences between groups;
  4. Explain the role of significance tests in hypothesis testing;
  5. Explain the importance of the researcher’s decision in statistical significance testing; and
  6. Ask appropriate questions when presented with discussions of statistical significance.

Module Instructions

  1. Read Chapter 14 of the 3rd edition of our textbook or Chapter 12 of the 4th edition of our textbook. Create self-study flashcards for the chapter.
  2. Watch mini-lectures “Quantitative Analysis”, “Measures of Central Tendency”, and “Thinking Through Descriptive Claims.”
  3. Read Chapter 15 of the 3rd edition of our textbook or Chapter 13 of the 4th edition of our textbook. Create self-study flashcards for the chapter.
  4. Watch mini-lectures “Quantitative Analysis and Difference Claims”, “Statistical Significance”, and “Thinking Through Statistical Significance.”
  5. Complete Learning Activity.

Key Terms and Concepts

  • Central tendency
  • Univariate analysis
  • Central value
  • Frequency distribution
  • Mode
  • Median
  • Mean
  • Measures of variation
  • Statistical significance
  • Substantive significance
  • Alpha levels
  • Type I error
  • Type II error

Required Readings

  1. Chapter 14 and Chapter 15 in Berdahl, Loleen and Keith Archer. Explorations: Conducting Empirical Research in Canadian Political Science (Third Edition). Oxford University Press OR Chapter 12 and Chapter 13 in Berdahl, Loleen and Jason Roy. Explorations: Conducting Empirical Research in Canadian Political Science (Fourth Edition). Oxford University Press.

Note: you do not need to calculate the statistics for POLS 256. Focus instead on how the statistics are used to understand the data.


 

Learning Material

Quantitative Analysis

Measures of Central Tendency

Thinking Through Descriptive Claims

Quantitative Analysis and Difference Claims

Statistical Significance

Thinking Through Statistical Significance

Learning Activity

Thinking Through “Significant” Research Activity

  1. Read Michael Desch’s Chronicle of Higher Education article “How Political Science Became Irrelevant” (https://www.chronicle.com/article/How-Political-Science-Became/245777 ). This article is behind a paywall. I will email all students a PDF of this article at the beginning of Week 10. I have also placed a PDF of this article under the announcement tab in Canvas. In 300-500 words, summarize Desch’s argument, and relate it back to the ideas of statistical and substantive significance. State whether or not you agree with Desch and why. In your response, use at least two terms covered in the module (readings and/or videos) and be sure that all terminology used from the module is used correctly. Proofread carefully.
  2. Post your response in your Learning Activity Discussion Board.
  3. Provide a constructive response to at least one of your fellow group members’ posts. A constructive response is one that (a) uses supportive language to (b) identify for the author an area in which the work can be strengthened. For example, it may identify an issue where the wording is unclear or a point where terminology is used incorrectly, or suggest ideas for examples or ways to strengthen the argument, or let the author know of questions that the work raised for them. A constructive response goes beyond ‘I agree’ or ‘that is interesting’ to assist the author in improving the work. It should provide feedback that is intended to assist the author of the learning activity in improving their work.

Reminder: At the end of Module 12, you are required to select one learning activity for submission from Modules 9-12. You can use the feedback that you receive in the group forum to revise your selected learning activity prior to submission.

Glossary

alpha (a) level see confidence level.

central tendency the centre of a data distribution; measures include the mode, median, and mean.

central value the numeric representation of the centre of a data distribution; also known as measure of central tendency.

confidence level the probability that the sample statistic is an accurate estimate of the population parameter; also known as alpha level.

frequency distribution a list of the number of cases for all possible values of a variable.

inferential statistics statistics used to determine if sample statistics are representative of population parameters.

mean the arithmetic average, calculated by adding all scores in a distribution and dividing by the total number of cases.

measures of variation statistical measures for the dispersion of scores around the central tendency.

median the value above which and below which 50 per cent of the cases fall.

mode the most frequently occurring value in a distribution of scores.

Type I error the error made when the null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected; also known as a false positive.

Type II error the error made when the null hypothesis is incorrectly retained; also known as a false negative.

univariate involving a single variable.

Note: Unless otherwise stated, glossary source is Berdahl, Loleen and Keith Archer. 2015. Explorations: Conducting Empirical Research in Canadian Political Science (Third Edition). Oxford University Press.

References

ASA News. 2016. News Release: American Statistical Association Releases Statement on Statistical Significance and P-Values. https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/p-valuestatement.pdf

Berdahl, Loleen and Keith Archer. 2015. Explorations: Conducting Empirical Research in Canadian Political Science (Third Edition). Oxford University Press.

Gill, Jeff. 1999. “The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.” Political Research Quarterly. 52 (3), 647-674.

McCaskey, Kelly & Rainey Carlisle, 2015. “Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance.” Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1-2), pages 77-96.

Nordyke, Shane. 2011. "Univariate Data Analysis Slides". OPOSSEM.

Turcotte, André. 2007. “What Do You Mean I Can’t Have a Say?” Young Canadians and Their Government: Charting the Course for Youth Civic and Political Participation.” Ottawa: Canadian Policy Research Networks.